Guys I Won't Draft

Well the fantasy football draft season is finally upon us and I'm psyched by the prospect of another fine season. I'm sure many of you are scrambling to find your free fantasy football cheat sheets, mock drafts, and sleepers as you prepare to wage war on your fellow fantasy football managers for the 2008 season. There have been lots of interesting developments in the National Football League this season, and I've been on top of all of them to give you a little insight on how the real world of NFL football should affect you fantasy draft. When I'm drafting a fantasy football sqad, I have one rule; that is simply to take a solid player with every selection, every round. Sounds simple enough, but you'd be surprised how many people are willing to take flyers on guys in running back by committee situations, players starting the season on injured reserve, and suspended players that are serving out sentences from the previous season. I steer clear of all those situations. To win in fantasy football, you need a roster full of talent at every position that you can count on every week. Drafting guys who are injured or suspended can hurt you team for the first couple weeks. When they return, they're usually rusty and it takes a week or two before they hit full stride, unless they reinjure themselves after coming back too quickly. As a fantasy owner, you're much better off drafting guys who are completely healthy and ready to contribute at a high level right from the start. Lose the first few games, and you will find that catching the other owners is more difficult than you envisioned. So here are my thoughts on some of players in fantasy football that I refuse to draft this year.

Matt Leinart / Kurt Warner - Explosive offense, most definitely. As a backup quarterback, I would certainly consider it, but the issue with drafting these guys is that you won't always know who will be the Arizona Cardinals starting quarterback each week. This means that you're going to be required to at least eat up three roster spots at the QB position on you fantasy team and you might find yourself without a starter if, for some reason, Ken Wisenhunt unexpectedly pulls the guy you started before kickoff. Do yourself a favor and draft a solid guy in their place.

Troy Smith/Kyle Boeller & kyle Orton/Rex Grossman - On draft day, I'm not chancing either of these QB pairs. Maybe during the season one emerges that's worthy of a roster spot, but at this point leave these guys alone. There will be several other solid options that you can use to fill your QB slot.

Willis McGahee - Someone will invariably grab Willis McGahee early in the draft - let 'em. Willis is not 100% and he's facing some stiff competition from rookie Ray Rice. The Baltimore Ravens staff really likes Rice and he's sure to get some looks this year as they evaluate the running back position in Baltimore. McGahee may have a good year, but the threat of Ray Rice stealing carries is enough for me to steer clear.

Reggie Bush / Deuce McAllister - Reggie is not an every down back. Deuce is coming off of consecutive knee surgeries. These guys are primed for fantasy mediocrity. Together they will form a formidable duo for New Orleans, but as individual fantasy running backs, they'll weigh down your squad like a lead anchor. Just look at their stats from last year ... les than impressive.

Joey Galloway - We were hearing hamstring earlier in the training camp and now its a slight groin injury. When a speedster like Tampa Bay Buccaneer Joey Galloway has any type of slight hamstring or groin issue in the preseason, let someone else make the mistake.

Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith -Both guys have been suspended multiple games and will not start the season with their respective teams. I don't like having holes on my roster for extended weeks at a time. Both will be solid producers as the season progresses, but they're not worth racking up the loses and you await their return.

Javon Walker - Walker has lost it. After a couple knee injuries he is unable to get separation and the pressure of being the number one guy seems to be getting to him. JaMarcus Russell has a great arm, but Walker doesn't appear capable of allowing him to exploit NFL defenses with it.

2008 Running Back By Committee Conundrum

At this point in the season, the jury is still kinda out on the RBBC debate. I use the running back by committee designation on my cheatsheets as a last resort if I really can't identify a clear cut starter, but the problem these days is that so many NFL teams have favored the running back by committee approach, that the cheasheets become littered with RBBC backs. This makes the single set back designation worth it's weigh in gold, if you can grab one. Inevitably you will eventually have to navigate the RBBC seas, so you'll want to make sure you either grab both backs or at least the primary back receiveing the lion's share of touches. As the preseason winds down, keep a close eye on the running back by committee situations across the league. In the meantime, here's my take on the running back position in all notable RBBC quandaries.

Willis McGahee and Ray Rice - I think you're gonna find Ray Rice to be very valuable this year. Baltimore likes him and Willis does not impress the Ravens coaching staff as hard working, blue collar back, he's very much a prima donna. That's why he didn't last in Buffalo.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor - Freddie wil steal some carries and goal line touches from Maurice Jones-Drew. I don't like this situation at all as both will continue to share the workload in Jacksonville. It's tough to predict what will happen this year, but I believe the bulk of the carries with go to Jones-Drew as the torch is passed this year. Jone-Drew's emergence as a top-flight fantasy back will continue to be tempered by the presence of Fred Taylor in Jacksonville.

Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall - Fast Willie Parker was a horrible fantasy football option last year. Although he did post over 1300 yards, he only scored two touchdowns the entire season. I look for Rashard Mendenhall to snag carries and take over at the goal line, much like Jerome Bettis did during Parker's rookie season. I'm staying away.

Deangelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart - D.Will has been a bit of a disappointment and the presence of Johnathan Stewart only hurts his value.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White - I like Chris Johnson's speed. He will definitely be a breakaway threat to take it to the house every Sunday. Who knows where LenDale White will be. If he can put down the donuts long enough shed his dough-boy appearance, he could be a solid option at running back in Tennessee. In the end I think Chris Johnson takes over ... the question is when?

Reggie Bush & Duce MacCallister - Conventional wisdom says to be cautious of Duce coming off of another knee injury. You ususally have to wait a full season to allow for a full recovery and Reggie Bush is not an every down back. He's a nitch player on an explosive offense. My adviceis to let someone else take a gamble on these guys. Why waste two slots on a running back position for the same team.

Julius Jones and Maurice Morris - This on is anyone's guess.

Kvein Smith and Tatum Bell - Kevin Smith gets the nod, but how much production can you expect from a 2008 3rd round draft pick?

Selvin Young and Andre Hall - I hate Mike Shanahan.

Ahman Green, Chris Brown, etc - Who knows which guys rises to the top of the pecking order in Houston.

Matt Forte, Kevin Jones, Adrian Peterson - Chicago is really in rough shape.

Rash of Injuries Plague Fantasy Football

If you’re a fantasy owner, you’ve either been helped or hindered by the rash of injuries infecting the NFL these days. Running Backs such as Ronnie Brown, Larry Johnson, Stephen Jackson, Jay Cutler, Javon Walker, Marvin Harrison, Trent Green, the list goes on and on and every week another star seems to be heaped onto the pile. When injuries like this occur, it is an opportunity for astute fantasy owners and waiver wire leeches to shine. Depth on any fantasy football team is paramount when trying to build a champion. Each week fantasy owners should be scouring the waiver wire for the next up and coming NFL phenom or an injured star’s backup. Stock-pile these guys on your bench, constantly improve the bench that you have in anticipation of an injury to your starter, then when injuries happen as the inevitably do, plug in a stopgap and continue your quest.

Offensive Woes Continue

Week 5 saw the continuation of pathetically low production from high fantasy football draftpicks. The Lions offense that had been surging through the first few weeks stalled in Washington as John Kitna and Roy Williams never got rolling. Larry Johnson and Shawn Alexander posted anemic rushing totals and therefore were no help to fantasy franchises in dire need of the premiere back they drafted to carry their teams. And what is wrong with Drew Brees, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Hasselbeck, these guys did nothing to help fantasy franchises this week. All in all sports fans, week 5 showed a fantasy football landscape that’s riddled with out of sync offenses, causing this fantasy manager to contemplate retirement.

Waiver Wire Pickup for Week 5

If you've been monitoring my Waiver Wire Pickup list on FantasyFootballManifesto.com, then you already have one of the better up-and-coming NFL rookie wideouts on your fantasy football team. If not, then you've probably already missed the boat on Kansas City Chiefs rising star, Dwayne Bowe. I targeted Dwayne Bowe after Week two, and told folks to grab him then. Since Week Two, the 6'2", 221 lb Bowe has gone on an offensive tear for a total of 299 yards and three scores. Dwayne Bowe has excellent size, elusive speed, and amazing hands. This kid has the toughness to steamroll over defenders and the soft hands to cradle the ball in the endzone. Dwayne Bowe victimized the helpless San Diego Chargers defense on rout to a 30 -16 drubbing of the 1-3 Chargers. After years of first round draft wide receiver flops, the Kansas City Chiefs have finally hit on a winner. If he's available grab him immediately.

My other Waiver Wire pick for Week5 is Denver Broncos running back Selvin Young. In spot duty for Travis Henry, Young has amasses 195 all purpose yards. Young is an elusive running back with great speed and good hands. He's a formidable dual-purpose threat with the capability t run between the tackles and well as catch balls out of the backfield. Travis Henry may have himself in a heap of trouble with a possible violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy. If he is suspended Selvin Young will be a very viable option in Mike Shanahan's Denver rushing juggernaut.

NFL Week 3 Reemergence of the QB position

The story for Week 3, was the reemergence of the quarterback position in several cities around the National Football League. Quarterbacks such as Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, and John Kitna had monster days throwing for multiple touchdowns and well over 360 yards. McNabb, in particular, performed impressively enough to silence critics after the embarrassment at home on Monday Night Football. Philip Rivers and Joey Harrington bounced out of mini-slumps to gain over 25 fantasy points as they seemed to find offensive production in losing efforts. It appears that fantasy owners can take solace in the fact that if they did not draft Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Carson Palmer that there is still solid production to be had at the quarterback position.

The other standout story from Week 3 was the throwback uniforms debuted by the Philadelphia Eagles circa 1933. Sportscasters and media folks throughout the nation were very vocal in their disgust at the site of the yellow and sky blue regurgitations. I for one have to completely disagree with their assessment of disapproval. In my opinion, from the baby blue surge stripe on the top of the helmet down to the color coordinated striped socks, the Eagles throwbacks get a big thumbs up! I think they're awesome. The Eagles look quicker, meaner, and more elusive. Maybe the colors blind opposing defenses, but I like 'em. Hopefully this blast from the past will make another appearance this year.

Week 2 Running Back Blues

If you drafted one of the top-flight running backs on draft day, you may be a bit disappointed by their production through the first two weeks of the NFL regular season. Guys like LaDanian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush or Deuce McAllister have had fairly low production as compared to the Willie Parkers, Edgerin James, and Joseph Addais. But fear not Fantasy Football fans, for these stud backs will get back on track and lead your fantasy teams back onto the road to the fantasy playoffs. If you look to their stats from last year each of these backs began the year with minimal fantasy production before exploding onto the scene and carrying fantasy football owners into the playoffs. Patience is key ... the tendency when fantasy owners begin to drop games is unload these guys via trade, but your patience will be rewarded. Each of these stud backs gets a better schedule against the run as the year goes on.